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EMIL
FRANZI |
Check back in ’08 to see how it turns outJanuary 3, 2007 |
Last year, I tried handicapping
the 2008 presidential race. In politics, a year is a lifetime.
Showing on GOP radar then was Virginia Sen. George Allen who looked like he could rally conservatives as the non-John McCain and Rudy Giuliani. He has since lost re-election to his own US Senate seat. Sic transit gloria. Replacing Allen with some conservatives is Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney. As one wag pointed out, of all the GOP hopefuls the one who’s had only one wife is the Mormon. The son of former Michigan Gov. George Romney, he lost a Senate race to Ted Kennedy in 1994. He was elected governor of Massachusetts in 2002. Massachusetts elected three different GOP governors in four consecutive elections and is another example of how shaky is the concept of “non-competitive” elections. Some of Romney’s pro-gay statements in 1994 cause problems for social conservatives. That’s balanced by his clear ability to govern, get Democratic votes, and his articulate image. Other Republicans back in the pack include former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, Kansas Sen. Sam Brownback, California House member Duncan Hunter and former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, leaving the same two front-runners we had last year, Giuliani and McCain. Arizonan Republicans are lining up for and against McCain with top-ranking GOP elected officials in support while many of the conservative party base are in opposition. Hard-liners have a problem with no strong alternative candidate for them to coalesce around unless they overlook Giuliani’s position on gays, guns and abortion. McCain’s problem with GOP conservatives is that he’s undependable. He’s flipped on gun issues, campaign finance, the environment and his blind defense of the filibuster with that gang of 14 over judicial confirmations. Ironically, just after he slobbered over the filibuster, he co-sponsored a Senate resolution apologizing for never passing an anti-lynching law. Why didn’t they? It was filibustered. Giuliani, with much less activity and media coverage, has hung even with McCain in the polls. He might finesse some social conservatives with a commitment to appoint strict constructionist judges and he can always have an epiphany on guns. Democrats have less philosophical differences among their front-runners. Maybe a little weaseling about who bailed on the Iraq War first, but with the exception of New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson (pro-gun, lowered taxes) and Lefty Ohio Congressman Dennis Kucinich, you can easily co-mingle the establishment liberal Senate voting records of the four current top contenders: John Kerry, John Edwards, Hillary Clinton and Barrack Obama. Edwards is aiming at the union base with anti-Wal-Mart rhetoric, Hillary is playing mom, Kerry is still taking himself seriously, and Obama (who is only two years out of the Illinois state senate) is using the “above it all” approach. There have been skyrocket candidacies like Obama’s before. He’s charismatic and articulate, but nebulous and really just another well-packaged liberal. At some point he gets to talk about ideas beyond attitudes. His biggest problem for now is obviously Hillary. Obama is portrayed as a goody-two-shoes. He better hope he never took in a late library book because by now the Clintons know most everything there is. Obama’s image must remain flawless. The Clinton operation will continue to probe the flaws that surely exist. That late library book might have a controversial title. The paucity of candidacies, particularly among Democrats, has propelled Obama to the top of a small heap. One more Democrat possibility - Al Gore. He’s a known commodity, riding the environment, and with great sympathy from the base because of the controversial 2000 results, I wouldn’t count him out. Biggest factor on both sides is money, and the perceived need for gobs of it by the establishment media. Having it, even if you blow it on dumb things, is a prerequisite for being considered a contender by those who report on it. Another irony, as that’s the same media that whines about money so much.
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BUT WATCH WHAT YOU SAY! |
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