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EMIL
FRANZI |
Reluctant pundit stakes
reputation on GOP longshotOctober 24, 2007 |
If you accept the title
“pundit,” about which I have serious reservations,
you must occasionally visit the presidential
sweepstakes. In early 2006 I actually considered
George Allen of Virginia a serious contender. He
lost his Senate seat that November. That’s why I
harbor such reservations.
Allen’s defeat focuses on a rarely discussed by-product of presidential politics. Many who give it a shot often are injured, not helped, in their home states. The only time anybody got close to Mo Udall in his 30-year career was in 1978, two years after his almost successful presidential bid. John McCain’s Arizona poll numbers have dropped since he announced his second presidential attempt. I’m not sure why this occurs — maybe presidential candidates become more clearly seen at home. I need Michael Barone to tell me. Radio colleague Tom Danehy’s jaw dropped last year when I called Al Gore the only serious threat to Hillary Clinton’s nomination. The anti-Clinton forces are scattered, the Obama skyrocket has worn thin, and Edwards, the biggest fraud in either pack, is going nowhere. Unless Gore gets in, she’s nominated. Republicans have a closer race. John McCain, like John Kerry in 2004, is inching back up. Fred Thompson’s somewhat lackadaisical approach isn’t lighting fires, but it’s keeping Mitt Romney from gathering more conservative support. Kansas Sen. Sam Brownback just cashed in. Ron Paul has a lock on the five percent of Republicans (it’s 19 percent of the Democrats) who actually want America to lose in Iraq. Mike Huckabee is enchanting, but can’t raise any money. Tom Tancredo is pegged as a single-issue guy. The current front-runner is Rudy Giuliani. As someone who started in politics in 1964 when it was Goldwater vs. Rockefeller, I have trouble judging Rudy as a liberal Republican. I hail from an era when we had real ones. Many conservatives have problems with Rudy on social issues. Arizona Republicans had the same problems with Barry towards the end of his life on the same issues. On other points, Rudy is a hardliner on Islamo-fascism. He’s also a reasonable proponent of low taxes, less spending and the free market. You might recall that guys like Rockefeller and Nixon weren’t. Many conservative Republicans are looking for the new Reagan. Maybe they ought to be looking for the new Goldwater. Rudy’s not that far off. My first choice I give to the guy I like best regardless of his poll numbers. I was the only columnist in the state — and probably the country — endorsing Bob Dornan in 1996. This time I’m with Duncan Hunter. Hunter is retiring from the California House seat he has held for 28 years. He’s the former chairman of the Armed Services Committee and a solid conservative vote in all regards. A decorated Green Beret in Vietnam, Hunter is the only other guy who wants the job besides John McCain who ever got shot at serving his country. Accomplishments? He got the border fence in San Diego built. Integrity? He led the GOP side of the floor fight against NAFTA and GATT to the chagrin of the corporados. Hunter shares one more attribute with McCain — and Joe Biden. They’re the only three seeking the presidency who have a kid in the service. We’ve come a long way from the two Roosevelts, whose male offspring all had combat time. One possibility. Many think a clear winner will emerge from the 20 or so states that will decide right after the first of the year, but it’s possible on the GOP side that we will have a variety of winners, which suddenly would make the states that choose later relevant again and could even lead to a real convention instead of the boring coronations they’ve become. Possible, if not probable. But remember that you read it here. I need to earn that pundit stuff.
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BUT WATCH WHAT YOU SAY! |
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