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EMIL
FRANZI |
Republicans form circular firing squadNovember 7, 2007 |
Here’s an old
political adage: There are two basic motivating
forces in politics — greed and vengeance. For
years Kathy has wanted to know “when do we get to
do greed?”
Among a select group of Arizona GOP leaders that adage is applicable right now. Last Sunday the Republic and the Daily Star carried an AP story about the decline GOP voter registration and fund raising. The story, headlined here as “Dems far outpace GOP in registrations,” carried quotes from several GOP consultants critical of their current state party leadership. Only two paragraphs in the Star’s story were devoted to voter registration and two more to fund raising, while the remaining nine quoted those hostile GOP consultants. The story pointed out two facts. New Arizona voters were registering 4 to 1 as Democrats in the third quarter of 2007, and in Maricopa County, Dems had gained 6,000 new voters while the GOP lost 300. State GOP Chairman Randy Pullen isn’t exactly a consensus builder. His close election as a national committeeman over Pima County’s Mike Hellon was not only hotly contested, but many think fraudulent. It was supposedly part of a “conservative takeover,” with Hellon pegged as the “moderate.” For about the ninth time, “moderation” is a demeanor, not an epistemology. Hellon was my choice for the GOP nomination CD8 in 2006, and as everybody should’ve noticed by now, I’m not big on RINOS or squishies. Pullen went on to win the state chairmanship last year over Lisa James by four votes. Ideological overtones were muted — James was supported by the hardly liberal congressional delegation and defeated gubernatorial candidate Len Munsil, a hardcore conservative. Most of Pullen’s support came from the even-harder right. Pullen started off in the hole. His predecessor left the party in hock, and some members of the congressional delegation and others were cutting off financial support. There was also a changing of the guard, over which consultants would be favored. One bright spot for Pima County and the rational center-right occurred when Tucson businessman Bruce Ash replaced Pullen as national committeeman. (Full disclosure: Bruce has been my client, and is my good friend.) Ash has acted as the ambassador to all the factions, with some success. The original story left much out that whining GOP consultants could have mentioned had they not been more interested in womping Pullen than Democrats. The fund raising difference between the two parties comes from one giant checkbook belonging to former Democratic State Chair Jim Pedersen, who was defeated by Sen. Jon Kyl in 2006. While they raised more money than Republicans, Democrats also spent more and have a larger staff to feed. Voter registration trends indicates much of the 2007 Democratic gain came from efforts in Ed Pastor’s heavily Democratic congressional district in Maricopa County, which will benefit Dems in statewide elections, but have no impact on competitive congressional and legislative races and still leaves Republicans reasonably ahead statewide, where Democratic voter rolls rose from 854,228 to 884,982 and Republicans from 1,014,690 to 1,026,534. The biggest gain came in the independent/other category, 754,607 to 682,037. More relevant is where those new registrations are. While central Maricopa County gains Democrats, legislative districts now held by them in Cochise, Yuma and Pinal counties are trending Republican. Pinal County now has a plurality of GOP voters. These facts should’ve been mentioned by those GOP consultants. Former GOP Executive Director Nathan Sproul was most adamant in his criticism of the party’s current leaders. Sproul’s own track record is somewhat spotty. He’s the guy who put Len Munsil where he is today, and is the only consultant nationally to lose a statewide gay-marriage ban campaign in 2006. He’s been hired to run a couple of GOP congressional campaigns this season. The moment of truth for Sproul, Pullen and others will come in the 2008 election. If Republicans don’t quit forming those circular firing squads, look for Democrats to make gains.
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BUT WATCH WHAT YOU SAY! |
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