Most surprises in the September primary came around here, with two upsets on the GOP side in state legislative District 26. Conservative Al Melvin defeated incumbent moderate Toni Hellon for state Senate and his running mate, Dave Jorgenson, led the ticket for one of the two House seats, nosing out liberal Republican Pete Hershberger for the top slot over the vigorous campaigns of two vigorous ladies Carol Somers and Lisa Lovallo.

What happened? Why did the same voters pick two rightees and a lefty simultaneously?

It's clear that a lot of folks didn't use their second vote, mainly the conservatives in the Melvin-Jorgenson group (There were 1,100 "blank votes" on Pima County District 26 ballots, meaning a voter should have colored in two bubbles on the ballot and only colored in one). The others mostly picked incumbent Hershberger and one of the two "moderate" women mainly because no one (besides me) gave them a reason not to.

I returned from a trip back East to a large pile of political mail. The fight for Rep. Jim Kolbe's Congressional District 8 seat was positively nasty, the District 26 state senate race less so. Unlike elsewhere, the District 26 House race was civil. Seems the only person to publicly give anybody a reason to vote against Rep. Pete Hershberger was me.

Any political campaign has four parts. Let 'em know you're running, give 'em a reason to vote for you, a reason to vote against the other candidate, then identify your voters and get them to the polls. Melvin, Jorgenson and their ally Randy Graf in CD8 touched all the bases, except Jorgenson, who didn't attack anybody. Hershberger survived because nobody hit him.

The role of ideology in voting patterns is greatly misunderstood. Like party identification, it's a great tie-breaker when other factors aren't present, but it isn't that big of a deal breaker for those who vote for other reasons. It can be a great motivator to a portion of the electorate in a generally low turn-out primary as occurred in LD26. Even then other factors are present.

Character. Voters will support a candidate they disagree with if they perceive integrity and courage. Think Sen. John McCain's image - regardless of all his deviations, he's still a basically conservative pro-Iraq War, pro-life, etc. guy but lots of liberals like to slobber over him. Character counts - that's why many consultants look for ways to assassinate it.

Effectiveness. Think Rudy Giuliani. Many conservatives swallow his social liberalism in trade for a guy who might have handled Katrina a little better, which leads to another factor in choosing party nominees.

Electability. You may have noticed that I lean a tad to the right. In the recent CD8 GOP primary, I chose Mike Hellon over Randy Graf even though Randy is closer to my views. I thought Mike had a better shot at winning the general, not because Mike's more "moderate," but because he's made fewer Republicans angry at him. I was willing to take half a loaf (in this case three quarters) and better odds at keeping the Speaker's gavel from Nancy Pelosi. Randy can still win, but I'm an old percentage poker player. Besides, Mike was an old friend, leading us to:

Friendship and Personal Contact. The former often explains why those personally familiar with the players make choices that seem incongruous. The latter is the secret to staying in office, which too many of today's pols have blown off by allowing civil servants to usurp their roles as ombudsmen.

Congressman and pols at other levels used to know how to jack up recalcitrant bureaucracies in favor of constituents. Goodie-two-shoes reformers and academic policy wonks have diminished this role to the detriment of incumbents and the public at large. Better your pols stay in office by getting mama her SSI check than attending a lobbyist's fund-raiser.

Finally, my genteel GOP mother-in-law who's been voting for more than 60 years noted that between nasty mail, scuzzy TV spots and gross robocalls, this was the most negative election she's ever seen.

Note that most of the dirty campaign material was paid for with public funds by "Clean Elections."

BACK TO TOP

EMIL FRANZI

EMAIL FRANZI

BUT WATCH WHAT YOU SAY!

About Emil Franzi

Emil Franzi is the owner and host of "Inside Track" on KVOI - 690AM and KAPR - 930AM in Douglas. The program airs on Saturdays from 12 pm till 5 pm.

Franzi currently writes a weekly column for the EXPLORER (formerly the NORTHWEST EXPLORER). He filled the TUCSON WEEKLY with close to a million relevant words from 1993 to 2004 and was an OpEd regular with the Az Daily Star from 1994 to 1998. His writing has also appeared in PHOENIX Magazine, ARIZONA HIGHWAYS, and the late CITY MAGAZINE in Tucson.

But then, Franzi is an iconoclast.

This website is Franzi's baby, put together with work, faith, and a little help from his friends, like Tom Danehy, Joyce Downey and Mike Tully. The concept -- politics, books, humor, the Old West, movies, "Pet Talk" and letters -- is Emil's. This unique brew seems to work. This website averages more than a thousand "hits" a day and keeps growing.

You can read Emil Franzi's views on all things political and cultural, as well as opposing views, on our "Politics and More" page.