Politics and poker, as the song goes, have great similarities. Play the percentages in both.

If you do that then you will bet the GOP loses House seats in November. As the Democrats only need 15 for control - and the Republicans have already written off two usually solid districts by not remembering how to do write-in campaigns - precedent also says the GOP loses the House, and maybe the Senate.

They've had a twelve year run on the former. That's their fourth best record after the gigs comprising 1916-1932, 1894-1910, and 1858 to 1874. The latter shouldn't count as many Democrats were voting somewhere else part of that time.

Democrats have the all time longevity record of forty years from 1954 to 1994, followed by 1930 to 1946.

Some pundits claim that today's districts are now "non -competitive" because of computerized sophisticated Gerrymandering techniques. They neglect that Gerrymandering was once a whole lot easier. Until 1966's landmark SCOTUS decision, equal population distribution wasn't a requirement. Other factors such as racial balance weren't present either.

I'll put whoever walked around behind Henry Clay with an abacus and a notepad or any 19th Century Tammany Hall District Chairman up against the geeks working for both of today's national committees anytime. And Gerrymanders are not forever. They usually correct the last one done by the other side and have limited shelf life because of ever-shifting demographics, a word they never heard of at Tammany Hall but forgot more about than any Poli Sci department today. If they were long term, we'd still have some Whigs and Federalists walking around.

Before continuing further, go to the blackboard and write 50 times "all districts are competitive in the primary". Residents of Arizona LD 26 can attest to that, with the defeat of three term incumbent State Senator Toni Hellon by Al Melvin. Other districts and jurisdictions, both in Arizona and elsewhere, come to mind. Try Alaska where former three term GOP US Senator Frank Murkowski came in a poor third in his own primary seeking re-nomination as governor.

If the criteria defining "non-competitive" was truly sound, then explain why overwhelmingly Democratic states like Rhode Island, Hawaii, and Massachusetts have GOP governors and heavy Republican states like Wyoming and Kansas have Democrats. Massachusetts has elected Republican governors the last four elections, Rhode Island the last three. The Democrat Guvs in Kansas and Wyoming are well on their way to re-election as is the Republican lady guv in equally Democratic Connecticut who followed their three term GOP governor's resignation after a felony conviction.

The biggest single reason the Democrats kept the House for 40 years is that most of the time the Republicans didn't really try. (After being in control for the last 12 years, some of them still aren't.) The genius of Newt Gingrich is that he did not buy the "precedent" argument. Ironically, he lost his job after the 1998 election by believing the party in the White House always loses seats in the off year..

There were two other exceptions in the 20th Century - 1902 and 1934. In both cases a president named Roosevelt was at the height of his popularity and had only been in office two years or less.

Forget about Iraq, Foley, gas prices, gay marriages, the stock market and Usama. Bet the odds.

The Democrats only need 13 more seats. More seats than that changed hands three times in the 1980's. If they can't make it this time, there is something so inherently wrong with that party that they'll require major surgery.

That's the precedent. That's percentage poker. Only I recall one time being dealt four natural tens. Concealed beautifully by a one card draw, it finalized with one other player who'd drawn three cards. Seems the erratic lout had drawn to two spades - the five and nine - and hit the six, seven and eight.

And that was how I learned the difference between a principle and a precedent.

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EMIL FRANZI

EMAIL FRANZI

BUT WATCH WHAT YOU SAY!

About Emil Franzi

Emil Franzi is the owner and host of "Inside Track" on KVOI - 690AM and KAPR - 930AM in Douglas. The program airs on Saturdays from 12 pm till 5 pm.

Franzi currently writes a weekly column for the EXPLORER (formerly the NORTHWEST EXPLORER). He filled the TUCSON WEEKLY with close to a million relevant words from 1993 to 2004 and was an OpEd regular with the Az Daily Star from 1994 to 1998. His writing has also appeared in PHOENIX Magazine, ARIZONA HIGHWAYS, and the late CITY MAGAZINE in Tucson.

But then, Franzi is an iconoclast.

This website is Franzi's baby, put together with work, faith, and a little help from his friends, like Tom Danehy, Joyce Downey and Mike Tully. The concept -- politics, books, humor, the Old West, movies, "Pet Talk" and letters -- is Emil's. This unique brew seems to work. This website averages more than a thousand "hits" a day and keeps growing.

You can read Emil Franzi's views on all things political and cultural, as well as opposing views, on our "Politics and More" page.