November 1, 2006 - You can't run off at the mouth and pen about an election and call your self "Inside Track" without having to stick your neck out with predictions. Here are mine. Not my choices necessarily, but my calls.

Nationally, the Democrats will take the House with about a 25 seat gain, not exactly a tsunami. Wider shifts than that occur whenever one party tries harder and doesn't expend its resources on defense. The "non-competitive district" crapola is often a self-fulfilling prophecy.

Democrats will gain in the Senate but there are too many close races to call. Normally the close ones tend to break all one way or the other, so betting precedents gives you either up three or up seven.

In Arizona, Republican Jon Kyl will be re-elected comfortably over Democrat Jim Pederson. The Arizona Daily Star even endorsed Kyl. He didn't need it. Pederson couldn't afford to lose it. My wife's observation - Kathy noticed Pederson started out relaxed and folksy in his TV commercials. Six or seven million bucks of his own money later he looks haggard and unhappy. Kyl has also run a superb campaign.

Gabrielle Giffords will be elected in CD8, primarily because the GOP has gone out of its way to give her the seat. She and Nancy Pelosi will be classic examples of that great quote of Cicero by way of Edmund Burke, "You have inherited Sparta through no merit of your own. Be worthy of it." The Graf campaign compounded the problem by often acting clueless and choosing to stick to the issues, ignoring all those voters who cast their ballots for other reasons.

Gov. Janet Napolitano will be re-elected handily, but not as big as some project. Len Munsil is about to prove conclusively that "Clean" elections doesn't allow enough money to knock off a statewide incumbent unless massive outside money is present. It isn't.

The same holds true in the Attorney General's race, where Republican Bill Montgomery is still an unknown. Terry Goddard wins easily, but not by a huge margin.

Unless something dramatic happens to really hack off GOP voters, the balance of the statewide ticket will stay Republican. Once again, the Dems are the minority party and given the inadequate resources provided by "Clean" elections, the dominant party wins.

The LD26 State Senate race will be closer than it should in a plurality GOP district, but Capt. Al Melvin should emerge the winner partly because his Democrat opponent Charlene Pesquiera couldn't even qualify for "Clean" money and partly because she's seems to be a dingbat, not showing up for stuff and not returning phone calls to people who want to give her free air time, like Tom Danehy. Independent campaigns are hanging signs and may drop mail but that's probably too little too late.

The House LD26 race will give one seat to incumbent Republican Pete Hershberger mainly because no one has told folks why they shouldn't vote for him. Hershberger will no doubt have sufficient delusions of adequacy to run for State Senate next time. Republican David Jorgenson should take the other seat partly because again "Clean" funds don't give Democrat Lena Saradnik enough money to run a campaign. Jorgenson is also a mellower personality than his teammate, Captain Al, and hasn't attacked anyone or ticked anybody off. Leftwing issues aren't enough to beat him here.

District 25 was defined as a "non-competitive" Democrat district.That was disproved four years ago with the election of Republican Jennifer Burns. Normally, she'd make it again but that's complicated by former State Rep. Gail Griffin running with some of her folks pushing a "single shot" campaign abandoning Burns for being "too liberal."

You can play that game in LD26 or LD30 where the GOP has the numbers. It's net result in LD25 will probably be the election of Democrats Manny Alvarez and Patricia Fleming. In the LD25 Senate race, bet Democrat incumbent Marsha Arzberger over Republican Mary Ann Black.

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EMIL FRANZI

EMAIL FRANZI

BUT WATCH WHAT YOU SAY!

About Emil Franzi

Emil Franzi is the owner and host of "Inside Track" on KVOI - 690AM and KAPR - 930AM in Douglas. The program airs on Saturdays from 12 pm till 5 pm.

Franzi currently writes a weekly column for the EXPLORER (formerly the NORTHWEST EXPLORER). He filled the TUCSON WEEKLY with close to a million relevant words from 1993 to 2004 and was an OpEd regular with the Az Daily Star from 1994 to 1998. His writing has also appeared in PHOENIX Magazine, ARIZONA HIGHWAYS, and the late CITY MAGAZINE in Tucson.

But then, Franzi is an iconoclast.

This website is Franzi's baby, put together with work, faith, and a little help from his friends, like Tom Danehy, Joyce Downey and Mike Tully. The concept -- politics, books, humor, the Old West, movies, "Pet Talk" and letters -- is Emil's. This unique brew seems to work. This website averages more than a thousand "hits" a day and keeps growing.

You can read Emil Franzi's views on all things political and cultural, as well as opposing views, on our "Politics and More" page.